Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
